Is the Iran War negotiable?
If Iran really believes that its enemies can’t achieve their objectives, why would Iran make peace?
On Tuesday, Iran let another deadline expire. The previous day, the Iranian Foreign Ministry had already tweeted that it “officially rejects” the US proposal as “unrealistic.”
Worse, “Iran firmly refuses any negotiations conducted under the shadow of illegal sanctions, military threats, or coercion.”
This is the pattern. US President Donald Trump threatens to escalate unless Iran makes a deal, but Iran rejects any negotiation – with one justification being it is under threat!
Trump shares responsibility for starting the latest war, but Iran bears most responsibility for the provocations before and the intransigence since.
Trump has already extended the war beyond his initial prospect of a few weeks. On 22 March, Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait, or the US would attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. But on 26 March, he said he was extending the deadline by 10 days, to meet a request from the Iranian government.
Trump’s deadline for Iran to re-open the Strait expired on Sunday, 5 April, when Trump extended the deadline to Tuesday evening, but with unprecedented profanity. “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F‑‑‑in’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”
On Monday, Trump said the “entire country could be taken out in one night.”
On Tuesday, Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight…probably.”
Trump’s bluster might help some Iranians to realize the risks of continuing the war, but it also helps a tottering regime to paint Trump as a foreign devil against which Iranians should unite.
Trump’s bluster is easy for scurrilous Westerners too to spin against him. On Monday, he dismissed questions whether attacks on power plants and bridges constitute war crimes.
The British government has already made clear that US forces are not permitted to use British bases for such missions. (In return, Trump compared Keir Starmer to Neville Chamberlain.)
On Wednesday last week, Trump, in a prepared televised address, had threatened to bomb Iran “back to the stone age,” which became the most reported phrase.
In that same address, Trump seemed to give up on the deadlines he had previously issued. He prospected an end to war within “two to three weeks.”
If the war does not end by negotiation, then it would peter out within weeks, with both sides reserving the right to strike the other at any time, and without resolution of new outrages, such as Iran’s interdiction of the Strait.
The actual proposals to end the war remain secretive on both sides.
